The "Issue First" Mandate: A New Playbook for Public Affairs

Growing up in Upper Arlington, Ohio, our upper-middle-class community was the bedrock of “Main Street” Republicanism. College-educated voters enthusiastically supported our Congresswoman Deborah Pryce, who balanced being chair of the House Republican Conference with moderate positions like being pro-choice and for environmental protections.

Yet from the early 2000s to now, Upper Arlington turned from red to purple and now deep blue. It went from 2012, Mitt Romney winning it by 8 points to 2024 when Kamala Harris won it by 26 points, a massive 34-point swing in twelve years.  

Thousands of communities across the country have similar stories.

The 20th century political map ceased to exist.

So, what happened? What happened in Upper Arlington wasn't an isolated event; it was a symptom of both parties fundamentally changing their core focus.

Democrats shifted from the party of non-college-educated labor to advance issues more important to socially liberal, secular white-collar workers (abortion, LGBTQ, DEI, climate, debt relief, healthcare). Conversely, Republicans’ positions more closely supported those working in the resource / blue collar economies (anti-elite, nationalist, anti-immigrant, law and order).

Yet this tectonic shift is not as simple as voters swapping parties, but by a massive de-alignment from both. As the parties moved positions, millions of Americans now de-aligned from either party – not willing to swap jerseys for the other team – instead more comfortable sitting on the sidelines.

Gallup states a record-high 43% of Americans now identify as political independents. This "homeless middle" is the new center of gravity in American politics, dwarfing both registered Republicans (28%) and Democrats (28%).

For public affairs professionals, the de-alignment has two profound consequences.

First, the traditional legislative-first approach is broken. Our old strategy of finding a moderate Republican and a moderate Democrat to broker a deal is a hunt for a ghost. This "Hollowed-Out Middle" is the structural result of ideological sorting, compounded by partisan gerrymandering. Most members of Congress are in "safe seats" where the only election that matters is the primary, giving them zero incentive to compromise.

Second, this new reality makes the "Party First" strategy, muscling a bill through with only the majority party, a high-risk gamble. A purely partisan win is fragile and open to be overturned if control of Congress shifts. For instance, The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, passed via reconciliation, was forced to include a "time bomb" of expiring provisions. That meant Congress had to spend much of this year debating the contentious tax provisions over again. That is the structural price of a "Party First" victory.

The path to a durable legislative victory now runs outside Washington. It's an "Issue First" strategy that builds a public mandate so broad that the internal party math becomes irrelevant.

The FIRST STEP Act in 2018 is the classic modern example in a bill to reform the criminal justice system. A "Party First" approach was doomed. In a hyper-polarized Congress, progressive Democrats loathed giving the Trump administration a win, and "tough on crime" Republicans were wary of voting for a "liberal" reform.

The solution was an "Issue First" campaign. A powerful public coalition of the most unlikely allies such as the ACLU and the Koch network, the Brennan Center and conservative faith groups created a new, unified center. This mandate gave both sides the political cover they needed: Republicans could champion "fiscal responsibility" and "redemption," while Democrats could champion "racial justice." The issue forced a consensus that the parties could not. It passed both bodies and was signed into law December 2018.

The lesson is clear. The paradox of our polarized, gerrymandered age is that the only durable victories are "Issue First."

The partisan de-alignment has changed the advocacy calculus; the old 'Party First' numbers simply don't add up.

Our job as public affairs professionals is no longer to find the last moderate in the building.

Our job is to build the new center—to identify an issue, create an 'outside' coalition of unlikely allies, and prove to legislators in both parties that the 'homeless middle' is now a unified bloc that can decide their next election.